QQQ Fibonacci analysis

 

Here's the big picture - on the weekly chart, the Nasdaq 100 as measured by the QQQ topped in January of this year near the 50% time retracement of the decline from the all time high to the October 2002 low.

 

Zooming in on the weekly chart shows the actual January 2004 high occurring just one week after the predicted high.  Note that the weekly price bar formed a reversal bar to the downside.  The close was less than the open, the close was less than the previous week's close, and the stock made a new high that week.

 

 

 

The daily chart shows a similar picture.  The daily chart 50% time retracement was on 13 January 2004 while the actual high was on the 20th.  Again, note the reversal bar to the downside at the exact high.

Amazing how after more than two years down from the all time high and more than a year up from the low that a significant reversal occurred that close to the 50% time retracement.

 

 

You didn't think I was just going to show you some ancient history did you? 

Why am I showing you this?  Guess what time retracement is occurring now.  That's right, the 62% time retracement targets last Friday as a possible turning point.

We won't know until later if this a turning point.  There are some interesting Fibonacci relationships to consider.

 

 

Keeping with the time retracements, consider this one.

Friday, 30 April 2004 coincides with the 62% time retracement of the decline from the 20 January 2004 high to the 23 March 2004 low.

 

 

Friday's price low is the 79% retracement of the 23 March low to the 5 April 2004 high.

 

 

Finally, the zig-zag correction off of the 5 April 2004 high ends (at least it does so far) near the 127% projection level C = 127% of A).  ** Not at the 100% expansion level as I previously suggested to subscribers.

 

 

And to top it off, Monday 3 May 2004 is an inside bar - today's range is within the previous price bar's range.

Talk about a setup - this one has it all.

- The big time frame suggests that now could be a possible turning point

- The smaller time frame suggests the same

- Price retracement (79%) shows a possible support level

- The ABC correction anticipates a possible low at the current prices

My plan of action with this is to look for a low risk long opportunity on a smaller time frame using Fibonacci analysis.


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